How instead of how much? How budget and strategic configuration impact advertising effectiveness

This research examines how companies can improve advertising performance by matching media planning and creative execution to brand size and purchase funnel stages. Using sales and marketing data for Dutch lager, the thesis applies a Panel VAR approach with 52,920 counterfactual scenarios to track consumer awareness, consideration, preference, and sales. Media channel selection emerges as the most decisive factor, whereas total budget matters less than anticipated. In addition, effective scheduling varies by brand size, and improving consumer attitudes does not always translate into maximum sales. The thesis also studies relative creativity by comparing 220 commercials from 19 Dutch brands in three categories against rival campaigns. Falling behind competitors in creativity suppresses awareness, yet extreme creativity can reduce sales. Smaller brands must achieve at least average creativity to build awareness, but category leaders gain little from highly creative messaging.